Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 88.5%
Tahminciler
18
Soru türü
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
22 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis20 Tem 26 00:43 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Alok Singh, Nate Bottman, Ryan Alweiss, or Elliot Glazer ever win the Alternative Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWill Carina Hong win a Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.
- The bet was agreed publicly on X on July 18, 2026.
- See my X post describing the bet.
- This market resolves YES if, after the conclusion of the 2026 Fields Medal cycle and on or before December 31, 2030, the International Mathematical Union officially awards at least one Fields Medal to a human mathematician.
- It resolves NO if no human mathematician is awarded a Fields Medal during that period.
- The 2026 Fields Medals are explicitly excluded.
Açık piyasalar
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+1.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-29.5pt48%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,4 Mn
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027-0.1pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,2 Mn
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺160,1 B
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.