Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiOther 37.1%19 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
41
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-16.9 pts
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Eyl 23 17:01 UTC2 Tem 30 03:59 UTC
Trendler
0.2%
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0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alok Singh, Nate Bottman, Ryan Alweiss, or Elliot Glazer ever win the Alternative Fields Medal?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiKurallar
Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.
- Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners.
- This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else.
- If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.
Açık piyasalar
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt3%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.6pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 175.3%
- 221.8%
- 3-0.1pt2%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No91%
- Yes+2.7pt9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺38,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺141,7 B
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+2.0pt88%
- Before 203082%
- Before 2029+4.9pt53%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,2 Mn
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+12.5pt88.1%
- Yes-12.5pt11.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺599,5 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺97,7 B
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Other için 37% fiyatlıyor.
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Temmuz 2030.
- Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.