Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiAlina Chan 80%18 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
21
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Mar 25 21:40 UTC16 Mar 30 06:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
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KalshiKurallar
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Alina Chan için 80% fiyatlıyor.
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 16 Mart 2030.
- Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.