Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 98.6%
Tahminciler
45
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis5 Ağu 23 20:45 UTC1 Oca 27 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWho will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessKurallar
This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
- https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- [link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator.
- I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak.
