Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiGannon Ken Van Dyke 97.6%14 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
210
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Oca 26 16:13 UTC1 Oca 27 06:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100
- I will resolve after the end of 2026 based on my own appraisal of the consensus of publicly available, credible reporting at that time (not based on my own speculation).
- I may resolve to partial probabilities if there has been some reporting but it does not rise to the level of consensus or near-certainty in my view.
- I do not plan to get overly granular about the probabilities in this hypothetical partial resolution case - it's gonna be something like "50% we don't find out, 50% this person" or "25% we don't find out, 50% this person, 25% that person" if I go that route.
- I'll be mentally rounding probabilities above 90% or below 10% to 100% and 0% respectively when I resolve.
- Feel free to add answers (I'm making the market partially in the hopes people will do research to find likely candidates I don't know about) but please note that duplicate answers will be ignored (the first one wins), as will any answers that do not refer to a specific, named person (other than "we don't find out").
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Gannon Ken Van Dyke için 98% fiyatlıyor.
- Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100