Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiPi is Transcendental 99.2%+0.2pt18 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
37
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+1.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
3 dakika önce güncellendi
13 Nis 25 20:42 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES for each theorem that is formally proven in Lean by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM UTC.
- A theorem is considered "formally proven" when a complete, verified proof exists in the Lean theorem prover's main library or in a publicly accessible repository that has been merged or accepted by the Lean community.
- Lean is an open-source theorem prover and programming language.
- It allows mathematicians to formally verify proofs of mathematical theorems using computer assistance.
- The Lean Mathematical Library (mathlib) is a community-driven effort to formalize mathematics in Lean.
Açık piyasalar
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+23.4pt55%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,1 Mn
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.3pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,1 Mn
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺292,1 B
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+15.8pt64.4%
- 4.2-4.4m-16.6pt27.9%
- 4.6-4.8m-0.1pt2.9%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Pi is Transcendental için 99% fiyatlıyor.
- Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2028.
- Which theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution Criteria