Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?

One-OffReligion Society & Culture474y

Manifold MarketsKYC yok

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Another pope uses the papal name Peter 20.9%

4 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

28 gün önce guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

2 Oca 24 21:4431 Ara 00 22:59

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

Another pope uses the papal name Peter21%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.

Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".

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Kurallar

I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.

Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".

Which of the following papacy-related events will occur first?

One-OffReligion Society & Culture474y

Manifold MarketsKYC yok

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Another pope uses the papal name Peter 20.9%

4 seçenek arasında lider

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

28 gün önce guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

2 Oca 24 21:4431 Ara 00 22:59

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir

Seçilen sonuç

Another pope uses the papal name Peter21%

Tutar (USDT)

Kurallar

I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.

Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".

İlgili Piyasalar

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

₺46,5 B

Evet: 4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2030?

₺14,1 B

Evet: 8.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus return on November 25 2026

₺8,8 B

Evet: 1%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?

Vatican III in 2026?

What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?

₺0

Peru: 84%

KALSHI

Bu konularda aktif

BitcoinBTC$61,712.79-3.46%

EthereumETH$1,723.31-4.10%

SolanaSOL$76.76-6.51%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0719-4.42%

XRPXRP$1.07-4.98%

BNBBNB$562.45-3.80%

İlgili Haberler

BingX Partners with Save the Children to Support Children at Risk in Western BalkansBlockchain Reporter

Nearly 100 Catholic Leaders Oppose CLARITY Act Over Trafficking Safeguard ProvisionsThe Defiant

Kurallar

I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.

Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".