Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?
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In Nate Silver’s blog post on Jan 22, 2025, he outlines four possible scenarios for the next era of American politics:
- “Conservative Golden Age” – conservative ideology continues to dominate, including a Republican winning the White House in 2028
- “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!” – liberal ideology dominates again like it did before Trump, including a Democrat winning the White House in 2028
- “Stalemate” – the conservative and liberal ideologies together remain dominant, but neither one consistently dominates over the other – control of the White House is expected to continue flipping back and forth, including a Democrat winning the White House in 2028
- “Off the Charts” – significantly new ideologies dominate instead of the conservative and liberal ideologies as they have generally existed for the past 100 years
- If Nate Silver states which scenario (if any) he believes is actually occurring, then this question will resolve to that scenario.