Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
YZOne-Off13y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiAutonomous AI math researcher 93.5%3 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis19 Eyl 25 19:41 UTC1 Oca 40 20:25 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first
Manifold MarketsWill a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
- Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
- Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market: https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
- If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
- Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
- Update 2026-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To satisfy Event 2, the AI must be capable of autonomously writing readable, well-explained papers.