Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
25 Tem 2026 08:40 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-3
Güncel topluluk tahminiBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0pt13 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
64
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
evvelsi gün guncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Ağu 25 18:3730 Ağu 26 18:36
Trendler
0%
0%
0%
0%
Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir
Seçilen sonuç
Before August 20262%
Platformları karşılaştır· Before September 2026
Piyasa kalitesine, ardından likidite ve 24s hacme göre sıralanır| Platform | Kalite | Olasılık | referansa göre | 24s Hacim | Likidite | Güncellik | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiGenel en iyi%90 eşleşme · doğrulandı | Düşük | 64% | — | ₺947,6 | ₺1 Mn | 21 dakika önce | Aç → |
| Manifold MarketsBu sayfa | — | 5% | — | — | — | evvelsi gün |
Kalshi üzerinde de mevcut
When will xAI release Grok 5?
8.0 pts2ay
58.7%
-8.0pt36.7%
4.6%
49 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik
Toplam Hacim₺2,1 Mn
24s Hacim₺947,6
KALSHIKurallar
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
Olasılıklar farklı piyasa yapıları, ücretler ve katılımcı havuzları nedeniyle değişiklik gösterebilir.
Hacim trendi
$5008 Tem8g veri25 Tem
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)