When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
One-OffUzay10y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
2031-2032 35.2%7 seçenek arasında lider
2031-2032 35.2%Tahminciler
10
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21 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis11 Haz 26 08:13 UTC31 Ara 36 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketKurallar
The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
- Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power).
- A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify.
- Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.
- Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).
