Güncel topluluk tahmini
2026 Jul-Dec 88.9%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
22
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+2.4 pts
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis19 Mar 25 22:06 UTC1 Oca 30 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in November?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of November?
PolymarketKurallar
At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.
- This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.
- Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.
- Clarifications:
- Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count
- The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment
