Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiJul-Dec 2026 43.7%-7.1pt5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-8.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 dakika önce güncellendi
25 Eyl 25 22:16 UTC25 Eyl 26 22:14 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will OpenAI release a new model before October?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketKurallar
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.
- Must be a real, new model by SSI — not a white‑labeled/rebranded external LLM.
- Requires third‑party confirmation of the model’s existence and that it is new.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-8.0pt23%
- Mark Carney-15.0pt15%
- Donald Trump11%
+37 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺72,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9,3 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt69.9%
- ChatGPT+0.9pt13.6%
- Gemini-1.6pt8.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺571,5 Mn
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+45.5pt84.3%
- September 22-13.1pt5.9%
- September 24-7.0pt2%
+13 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+8.0pt79%
- December 15,+10.0pt75%
- November 30,+8.5pt54%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt87%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt84%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺107,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.5pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will SSI release their first model? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 21 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Jul-Dec 2026 için 44% fiyatlıyor.
- When will SSI release their first model? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will SSI release their first model? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 25 Eylül 2026.
- When will SSI release their first model? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.