Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 86.1%
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11
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
9 dakika önce güncellendi
8 Eyl 26 22:26 UTC30 Eyl 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?
PolymarketWeights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SSI release their first model?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Any model counts.
- Image model, TTS model, a main-line GPT model, any model.
- Obviously, if they release weights with randomly initialized values that won't count but besides that, anything goes.
- Could be an open-weights model or a proprietary model or updates to model series (like GPT-6.1)
- The ChatGPT Image 2.5 model released today will not count
Açık piyasalar
AI
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-8.0pt23%
- Mark Carney-15.0pt15%
- Donald Trump11%
+37 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺72,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9,3 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt69.9%
- ChatGPT+0.9pt13.6%
- Gemini-1.6pt8.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺571,5 Mn
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+45.5pt84.3%
- September 22-13.1pt5.9%
- September 24-7.0pt2%
+13 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+8.0pt79%
- December 15,+10.0pt75%
- November 30,+8.5pt54%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt87%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt84%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺107,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.5pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 21 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 86% fiyatlıyor.
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Eylül 2026.
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Any model counts.