Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2026 66.8%-2.9pt6 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
33
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+11.3 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 dakika önce güncellendi
13 Nis 25 13:37 UTC1 Oca 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?
PolymarketWill Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Anduril release a product or service with a name that references Smash Bros by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.
- When will SSI launch its first product?
- For the purpose of this market, "product" means a paid product based on an AI foundation model, e.g. a chatbot, model API, or "wrapper app".
- This is meant to exclude minor, miscellaneous sources of revenue.
- Maybe this will create edge cases but I don't want to commit to resolving Yes the first year SSI has revenue >$0.
- Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Product Scope Update:
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 13 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2026 için 67% fiyatlıyor.
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.