Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 99%
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Ağu 25 02:51 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Manifold MarketsWill Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if Thinking Machines Lab (TML) publicly releases a product before Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2029; resolve NO if SSI releases first by that deadline; resolve N/A if neither releases by then.
- Public timestamps determine precedence; if exact simultaneous release times cannot be distinguished, resolve N/A. “Product release” means any of: (a) a publicly accessible consumer app or web product; (b) an API/developer platform with public sign‑up or paid access (counts once external users beyond the company are admitted, not at waitlist announcement); (c) an open‑source release of runnable model weights or software with a versioned tag on a public repo; or (d) an App Store/Play Store listing.
- Excludes demos, research papers without runnable code/weights, private NDAs/pilots with a single customer, and fundraising/”we’re building” posts.
- Primary verification sources: official sites/announcements and product pages (TML: https://thinkingmachines.ai/; SSI: https://ssi.inc/), company GitHub/orgs, App Store/Play Store pages, or major tech press with explicit availability and timestamps (e.g., TechCrunch/Reuters).
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.5pt70.4%
- ChatGPT-2.9pt13.3%
- Grok+0.8pt7.1%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺527,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,8 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,+1.0pt89%
- December 31,-3.5pt88%
- November 30,-4.0pt86%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-4.0pt57%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt91.4%
- Grok+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini1.9%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺24 Mn
- 24s Hacim
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt91.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Gemini0.9%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,4 Mn
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt84%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺86 Mn
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Most popular AI this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 12 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 99% fiyatlıyor.
- Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria