Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Over 1T parameters 93.2%12 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis11 Kas 24 23:53 UTC1 Oca 28 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2027.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
- I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc. See also: @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9
- @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt @/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8 (this market)
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-13.0pt62.4%
- 2027-13.0pt29.7%
- 2026-3.5pt7.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,4 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-0.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt57%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.2%
- Grok+2.5pt7.5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺514,3 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,7 Mn
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Over 1T parameters için 93% fiyatlıyor.
- What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2028.
- What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2027.