Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 25 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla Manifold için 60.3% fiyatlıyor.

Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Trump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Şubat 2029.

Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally).

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Manifold 60.3%

Tahminciler

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

7g Değişim

0.0 pts

Piyasa verileri

12 saat önce güncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

28 Oca 25 19:50 UTC2 Şub 29 04:59 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

Resolves based on who has a lower Brier score (each prediction weighted equally).

Locking in the percentages from this market on 2/9/2025 (giving Manifold a 2 week advantage from when the article was published) in order to give it enough time for volume.
After that I will track results in a publicly available spreadsheet.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/manifold-vs-nate-silver-113-predict?play=true)Because of the advantage I ignored the follow predictions:
#41 Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days.
#43 Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations.