Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 99%
Tahminciler
33
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
23 dakika önce güncellendi
1 Eki 22 06:06 UTC2 Oca 28 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
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Manifold MarketsIf Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
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PolymarketWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
KalshiKurallar
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month