Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 98.5%
Tahminciler
49
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Eyl 22 22:16 UTC2 Oca 50 04:59 UTC
Trendler
Makroya Duyarlı Varlıklar
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurBank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026
FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurKurallar
This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
- Meta comment: This is another "what is the risk free interest rate" market, but testing a very long time period.
- Based on my calculations about loans, I think that there's still a big difference in opportunity cost between a 1-month investment and a 1-year investment, but there actually seems to be only a tiny difference in opportunity cost between a 1-year investment and a 10-year investment.
- (Assuming it's a small part of your portfolio so it doesn't contribute much to the loan cap).
- This is because the vast majority of your opportunity cost is incurred in the first few months - with 2% of your investment being loaned back to you every day, by 365 days less than 0.01% of your investment is still locked up in the market.
- There's another interesting consideration which is how much the long time frame affects questions like whether you and/or Manifold will still be around, etc. (Note that even if I am hit by a bus, Manifold admins have stated and shown that they usually will resolve popular markets eventually if the author is not responsive.)
İlgili Kriptolar
Sık sorulan sorular
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 99% fiyatlıyor.
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2050.
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
