Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 55.4%
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
binary
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
22 dakika önce güncellendi
17 Ağu 25 10:40 UTC30 Mar 29 22:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government raise the sales tax before the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition.
- This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet.
- Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes).
- (bundestag.de)
- Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties).
