Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini3 parties 41.3%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Eyl 25 18:35 UTC22 Mar 29 19:31 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiKurallar
Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
- Resolves to the option representing the minimum number of mainstream parties needed to form a majority coalition (>50% of Bundestag seats).
- Examples: - After the election in early 2025, the market would have resolved to "2 parties" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition was possible. - If there were an election held today that matched current polling (September 2025), the market would resolve to "the named outcome" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would not be possible, but a CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens coalition would.
- Definition of "mainstream" Parties:
- Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
- Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party) Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.3%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.3%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺32,7 Mn
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.0pt44%
- Renan Santos+0.5pt2%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt99%
- Dan McKee+0.7pt1%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺36,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mr
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate44.3%
- D-House, R-Senate34.9%
- R-House, R-Senate+5.0pt18.9%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺582,6 Mn
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Sık sorulan sorular
- Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 3 parties için 41% fiyatlıyor.
- Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 22 Mart 2029.
- Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).