Bu piyasa sonuçlandı: 5-7.5 (88.6%)
Sonuçlandı: 24 Tem 2026 23:32
Sağlayıcı tarafından doğrulanmış sonuç
CoinRithm bu piyasa için kazanan ve sonuçlanma zamanı konusunda sağlayıcı destekli kanıta sahip.
Güncel topluluk tahmini5-7.5 88.6%+11.4pt10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
26 gün önce guncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Nis 26 16:4924 Tem 26 23:32
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
>501.1%
40-501.1%
30-401.1%
25-301.1%
20-251.1%
15-201.3%
10-151.9%
7.5-101.5%
5-7.588.6%
<51%
88.6%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1%
Kurallar
This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.
- 'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
- Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
- Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- [link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 25 Temmuz 2026 itibarıyla 5-7.5 için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 24 Temmuz 2026.
- Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.
