Will we get ASI before 2029?

₺17,8 B

Evet: 10.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

₺11,6 B

Evet: 13%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?

₺11,6 B

Evet: 66.1%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

₺270,9

United States: 61%

KALSHI

How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

₺5,3

At least 40: 58%

KALSHI

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

₺2

Before 2030: 46%

KALSHI

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)

Is attention all you need? (transformers SOTA in 2027)