Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 97%
Tahminciler
41
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 dakika önce güncellendi
3 Tem 25 17:16 UTC4 Tem 30 17:03 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a nuclear war before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 3, 2025, and July 3, 2030, a nuclear weapon is detonated in an act of war, resulting in at least one fatality.
- The detonation must be confirmed by credible sources such as major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) or official government statements.
- Tests, accidents, or non-fatal incidents will not count towards resolution.
- The risk of nuclear conflict has been a subject of extensive analysis.
- Estimates vary, but some experts suggest a 1% annual probability of nuclear war, accumulating to a significant risk over multiple years.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺29,5 Mn
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.9pt47.8%
- October 31-3.0pt29.2%
- September 30-4.0pt12.4%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-5.0pt74%
- September 18-10.0pt67%
- September 11-2.5pt63%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Nuclear war in next 5 years? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 97% fiyatlıyor.
- Nuclear war in next 5 years? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Nuclear war in next 5 years? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 4 Temmuz 2030.
- Nuclear war in next 5 years? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria