[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?
One-OffYZ19yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 72%
Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Ara 25 03:33 UTC31 Ara 45 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?
KalshiWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExBy 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
Manifold MarketsWhich High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
From the MIT AI Risk Initiative:
- "Future AI systems may gain access to websites and engage in real-world actions, potentially yielding a more substantial impact on the world (Nakano et al., 2021).
- They may disseminate false information, deceive users, disrupt network security, and, in more dire scenarios, be compromised by malicious actors for ill purposes.
- Moreover, their increased access to data and resources can facilitate self-proliferation, posing existential risks (Shevlane et al., 2023)."
- This market is about whether a deployed AI system, acting without direct human intent to cause a major breach, will autonomously obtain access to clearly restricted, high-risk systems or data, in a way that is treated as a serious security incident.
- Resolves YES if, by 31 December 2045:
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺562,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,4 Mn
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt70%
- December 15,+10.5pt65%
- November 30,-0.5pt49%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+3.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺11,3 Mn
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
Sık sorulan sorular
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 20 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 72% fiyatlıyor.
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2045.
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: