Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 79.4%
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Ara 25 03:24 UTC31 Ara 35 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Manifold MarketsTencent market share this week
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."
- This market is about whether a deployed AI system will be blamed for a large loss of life.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by 31 December 2035, there is a publicly available:
- official report from a government, regulator, court, accident/incident body, or major international organisation (WHO, UN, ICAO, etc.), or
- article from a major reputable news organisation (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, WSJ, The Guardian) that credibly reports such a finding,
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.9pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺562,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,4 Mn
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt70%
- December 15,+10.5pt65%
- November 30,-0.5pt49%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+3.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺11,3 Mn
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
Sık sorulan sorular
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 20 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 79% fiyatlıyor.
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2035.
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."