Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
PolitikaJeopolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsSeçimMiddle East3y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 74.9%
Tahminciler
31
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Eki 24 09:00 UTC1 Oca 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in a war by the end of this decade?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
PolymarketWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
- This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
- For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
- For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
- The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
- Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺39,1 Mn
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.8pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mr
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.2pt3%
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt14.1%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,3 Mr
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 daha fazla sonuç
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 75% fiyatlıyor.
- Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected. nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/