Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiDec 31 14.8%+0.4pt10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
31
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+1.8 pts
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Mar 26 01:01 UTC1 Oca 27 00:58 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Iran leadership change by which date?
PolymarketWill Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
- Futuur üzerinde de mevcut — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 20%
- Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 31%
