In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
17.8 puan (24s)YZOne-Off6yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2026 97.8%+17.8pt8 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
39
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+17.8 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 dakika önce güncellendi
6 Tem 25 10:341 Oca 33 23:59
Trendler
Kurallar
SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters
Açık piyasalar
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30+1.1pt100%
- October 31+0.9pt100%
- September 25+1.3pt99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺63,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺30,7 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.5pt62.1%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt19.4%
- Grok+1.2pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺492 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+14.7pt19.6%
- September 8+15.9pt15.9%
- September 9+15.6pt15.9%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+5.8pt100%
- November 30,+3.7pt100%
- December 31,+3.6pt100%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+12.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+7.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-17.0pt68.2%
- ChatGPT+14.0pt23.4%
- Gemini2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺8,8 Mn
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
- AI capability growth this year?
- Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
Sık sorulan sorular
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 4 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2026 için 98% fiyatlıyor.
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2033.
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.