Güncel topluluk tahmini
2025-2034 30.7%+0.2pt6 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
22
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+0.2 pts
Piyasa verileri
12 dakika önce güncellendi
23 Mar 25 14:56 UTC1 Oca 01 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
Açık piyasalar
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+17.3pt49%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺11 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 2027+0.2pt5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mr
- 24s Hacim
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺291,7 B
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+65.0pt99%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- 0-19.0pt47.6%
- 1+24.5pt40.8%
- 3+6.0pt6.8%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Sık sorulan sorular
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2025-2034 için 31% fiyatlıyor.
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2101.
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.