Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 85%
Tahminciler
35
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Tem 23 18:56 UTC2 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiKurallar
Based on this question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)However, Scott's question description says: "The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist."
- This market is about whether the AI will be publicly available.
- I intend to interpret "publicly available" quite strictly.
- It has to be possible for a normal person to obtain.
- This is codified as follows:
Açık piyasalar
EntertainmentKALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m-7.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m+7.0pt25.5%
- 960 - 970m+0.3pt2%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 2599%
- Above 3075%
- Above 3254%
+14 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,7 Mn
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+16.0pt99%
- Above 50+42.0pt95%
- Above 55+45.0pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺15,3 Mn
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden-4.7pt40.8%
- No Bond chosen+2.1pt20.4%
- Jack Barton-1.1pt12.2%
+21 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel-5.0pt25%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-3.0pt14.4%
- Dee Valladares+8.0pt13.5%
+14 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 4?
- Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- How many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
Sık sorulan sorular
- In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 85% fiyatlıyor.
- In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2028.
- In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Based on this question: