Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 68.9%
Tahminciler
62
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Ağu 24 09:22 UTC4 Oca 28 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketKurallar
EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover".
- It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film script, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's good enough for a director to use without modifications to make a movie.
- Video generation question:
- @/SamuelKnoche/in-early-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-lezeyhikb7
- The intention of this question is to tease out what difficulties people expect for this question to resolve Yes:
- @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 69% fiyatlıyor.
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 4 Ocak 2028.
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover".