If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
One-OffEkonomiMacro & EconomyPolitikaSeçimUS Politics4ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 88%
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Guncelligini yitirmis11 Mar 24 23:22 UTC2 Şub 27 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026?
KalshiWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExKurallar
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
- Otherwise resolves No. I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule.
- (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
- Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
Açık piyasalar
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-2.0pt45.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,4 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺30,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,7 Mn
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-3.0pt58%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺604,3 B
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes22%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺17,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺409,3 B
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺371,4 B
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI core in August
- Unemployment in September
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
İlgili Kriptolar
Sık sorulan sorular
- If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 88% fiyatlıyor.
- If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Şubat 2027.
- If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.