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Guncelligini yitirmis6 May 26 23:11 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If Iran's regime falls in 2026, will it be a surprise?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsCuban regime falls in 2026?
PolymarketWill Iran's regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.
- Resolves NO if the regime falls by Dec 31, 2027 AND consensus attributes the proximate trigger to internal causes alone: domestic protest, internal succession dispute, or economic collapse without external action.
- Resolves N/A if the regime does not fall by Dec 31, 2027 (parent question resolves NO).
- “Proximate trigger” = the precipitating event in the final 30 days before the regime’s loss of sovereign authority.
- Background pressure (sanctions in place for years, ongoing protests, etc.) does not count as the trigger unless it sharply escalates in that final window.
Sık sorulan sorular
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 50% fiyatlıyor.
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to govern by Dec 31, 2027 AND broad media consensus (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) attributes the proximate trigger to external action: foreign military operation, comprehensive financial isolation cutting the IRGC parallel economy, or major external-driven cyber operation against MOIS infrastructure.
