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If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
JeopolitikOne-OffChina
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 55%
Tahminciler
48
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Şub 24 00:52 UTC1 Oca 00 00:57 UTC
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WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.
- If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it.
- I will therefore resolve NO.
- Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s.
- I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment.
- Feel free to fill my limit order over there.
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+5 daha fazla sonuç
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- December 31-3.9pt47.8%
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+17 daha fazla sonuç
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+2 daha fazla sonuç
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+7 daha fazla sonuç
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
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+20 daha fazla sonuç
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- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
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Sık sorulan sorular
- If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 55% fiyatlıyor.
- If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2100.
- If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias] nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.