Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 55%
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48
Soru türü
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
22 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Şub 24 00:52 UTC1 Oca 00 00:57 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.
- If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it.
- I will therefore resolve NO.
- Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s.
- I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment.
- Feel free to fill my limit order over there.