I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
YZOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 83.6%
Tahminciler
77
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis21 Ara 22 20:35 UTC1 Oca 31 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill AI outperform the best human expert on machine learning R&D?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurKurallar
Background on me: I rate myself at somewhere between 75th and 95th percentile skill in machine learning engineering [amongst employed professionals of that job title].
- I rate myself at >95th percentile knowledge/skill in the overlap space of machine learning and neuroscience.
- Disclaimer: I may be wrong about these estimates, this is just information for you to use about my opinion of myself.
- Resolution criteria: I must either have successfully done this, or it must be obvious that someone of my equivalent skill level could accomplish this.
- Coding a seed AI that recursively self-improves to AGI counts, if the improvement is accomplished within budget and timeframe.
- Criteria for AGI pretty vauge, but I will try to resolve honestly in way which I believe would be convincing to most neutral parties as of creation of this question.
