Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 73.3%
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Haz 23 06:49 UTC1 Oca 27 08:00 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Most training run compute greater than 2e27 FLOP by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
Manifold MarketsWill China obtain an EUV machine?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
KalshiKurallar
As of 2023, China's artificial intelligence (AI) sector has achieved outsized success, with Chinese companies dominating the top five spots in a U.S. government ranking of the most accurate facial recognition technology producers.
- This success is attributed to the alignment of interests between AI technology and autocratic rulers, with AI being a fundamentally predictive technology and autocratic regimes known for collecting vast amounts of data1.
- The growth in FLOPs used for ML training over time has been substantial, with increasing access to cloud computing resources and declining costs contributing to this trend.
- Before January 1, 2027, will any media report a machine learning training run in China exceeding 10^26 FLOP?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2027, there is credible media reporting of a machine learning training run in China that exceeds 10^26 FLOP.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 73% fiyatlıyor.
- Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As of 2023, China's artificial intelligence (AI) sector has achieved outsized success, with Chinese companies dominating the top five spots in a U.S. government ranking of the most accurate facial recognition technology producers.