Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiUkraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia 60.4%6 seçenek arasında lider
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Tem 23 09:32 UTC31 Ara 29 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketKurallar
Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.
- There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border.
- For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014.
- Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).
- The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again.
- The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.