How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F
MadencilikOne-OffYZTeknoloji8ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiConverge — similarity score ≥ 22/30 52.9%3 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
3
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Tem 26 03:52 UTC30 Haz 27 04:59 UTC
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Resolves to the option matching the total pairwise structural similarity score of the endpoint snapshot (frameworks as published on 2027-06-30), per the pre-registered coding scheme published at Audit Motion 003|三大前沿安全框架,正在收斂還是分化?
- Baseline (2026-07-18): 19/30.
- Scoring: 5 dimensions (capability threshold definition, deployment-halt triggers, external verification role, disclosure obligations, amendment governance) × 3 framework pairs (Anthropic–OpenAI, Anthropic–GDM, OpenAI–GDM), each scored 0–2.
- Converge = ≥ 22 (baseline +3); Diverge = ≤ 16 (baseline −3); No significant change = 17–21.
- The coding scheme, per-cell criteria, and baseline scores were published before market creation and are frozen.
- Endpoint scoring uses identical criteria.
