Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 78.7%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Eki 25 20:25 UTC31 Ara 27 20:14 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?
Manifold MarketsDoes Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.
- Grok 5 means the model and variations named Grok 5 (Grok 5 Pro, Grok 5 Code, Grok 5 Fast), and any of them being called AGI will count.
- A Grok 5.5, 5.1, 5.7, or other number variation wouldn't count.
- Elon has to refer to it as full AGI, not "very close to" or "at moments", or similar partial statements.
- The definition of AGI will be the one Elon uses too: "Capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do", though Grokipedia could be used as a secondary source.
- Date will be extended if necessary until Grok 5 releases.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 79% fiyatlıyor.
- Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.