Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 91%
Tahminciler
29
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Ağu 25 18:48 UTC1 Oca 00 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiKurallar
Resolves according to mainstream opinion by independent sources.
- The name doesn't have to be exactly "GPT-6", if it is sufficiently different from GPT-5 and strongly advertised as such, I'll count it as GPT-6.
- I'll use Wikipedia's definition of AGI for this market:
- Artificial general intelligence (AGI)—sometimes called human‑level intelligence AI—is a type of artificial intelligence that would match or surpass human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks.
- Artificial general intelligence - Wikipedia https://share.google/skCpncfE1HhkzuEQC
- If Open AI stops existing before releasing GPT-6, this market resolves NA.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 91% fiyatlıyor.
- Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2300.
- Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves according to mainstream opinion by independent sources.