Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
YZOne-Off
Manifold MarketsKapalıKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreBu piyasa sonuçlandı: No (89.8%)
Sonuçlandı: 18 Eki 2026 04:17
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CoinRithm bu piyasa için kazanan ve sonuçlanma zamanı konusunda sağlayıcı destekli kanıta sahip.
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No
7 gün kala
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24 saat kala
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Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
18 Eki 2026 21:50 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
Yes10.2%
No89.8%
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
By what date will all state-of-the-art general-purpose AI systems not be reasoning models?
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https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/agi-will-not-happen-in-your-lifetime
- Resolves very subjectivly; don't bet if you don't trust my judgement.
- Physical reasoning includes things like driving cars, cleaning houses, and other use-cases that involve understanding directions and distances in the real world and manipulating physical objects.
- Psychological reasoning includes things like understanding human thoughts and ideas, making art and mathematical discoveries, writing computer programs, etc. This market resolves once it seems that AI's mastery of one of those domains has radically improved over the status quo in January of 2023.
- For example if before we reach AGI we get self-driving cars that are radically safer than humans in all situations, this will probably resolve YES.
