Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 86.4%
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli27 Haz 25 18:19 UTC3 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Kurallar
Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?
- I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means.
- For instance:
- This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so.
- This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well).
- For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here).
Açık piyasalar
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺697,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9,6 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+11.0pt64%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-4.0pt45%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-10.0pt37%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺79,6 Mn
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.2%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.2%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 86% fiyatlıyor.
- Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 3 Ocak 2027.
- Federal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?