Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 88.5%
Tahminciler
14
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli27 Haz 25 18:19 UTC3 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
KalshiWill the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsComprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?
PolymarketHIRE Act passes by 2026
Manifold MarketsSenate passes Clarity Act by which date?
PolymarketCircuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Will a federal law that preempts state-level AI regulation pass by the end of this Congress (i.e. January 3, 2027)?
- I intend to take a broad view on what "preemption" means.
- For instance:
- This question resolves YES if a law passes that penalizes states for passing or enforcing regulations on AI, even if it does not ban states from doing so.
- This question resolves YES if only some kinds of AI regulations get preempted (so long as the legislation preempts AI regulation in particular, as opposed to preempting some other class of state-level regulation that just so happens to preempt some kinds of AI regulation as well).
- For example, the Lummis bill has a narrow preemption clause that preempts enforcement of state laws against developers under certain narrow circumstances (see page 9, line 18 here).