Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 79.9%
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Tem 23 08:54 UTC1 Oca 43 21:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
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PolymarketHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiKurallar
Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- On Twitter, they agreed to a bet.
- Tweet thread.
- Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Sık sorulan sorular
- Explosive growth bet için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 21 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 80% fiyatlıyor.
- Explosive growth bet ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Explosive growth bet için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2043.
- Explosive growth bet nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.