Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 73%
Tahminciler
14
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis12 Ara 25 18:34 UTC31 Ara 26 18:34 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Texas use a different U.S. House map in 2026 than in 2024?
Manifold MarketsMacBook base model price on Black Friday
KalshiApple releases base model iPhone 18 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSlate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
I would resolve the market to "Yes" if GPT-5.2 used a different pretrain than GPT-5.1.
- This market may be resolved using insider knowledge that I hear from friends that work at OpenAI.
- In this case, there will be no public citations for my resolution.
- Trade at your own risk.
Açık piyasalar
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 73% fiyatlıyor.
- Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Does GPT-5.2 use a different base model than GPT-5.1? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: I would resolve the market to "Yes" if GPT-5.2 used a different pretrain than GPT-5.1.