Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?
Suç ve AdaletOne-Off
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 59.2%
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Nis 23 19:33 UTC1 Oca 00 08:00 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Inspired by all the people trying to back up their claims of AI risk by saying Turing agreed with them, such as here and here.
- "Non-negligible" means that Turing would have supported at least a few thousand person-hours by academics and computer scientists looking into the issue further.
- "Exterminate or enslave" will include any serious X-risk or S-risk.
- Anything that would make humanity much worse off than it is now.
- Resolves at some distant point in the future when these issues are less emotionally charged and people are less likely to engage in tribalism and motivated reasoning, and we hopefully have learned more about Turing's life and beliefs.
- The main two passages people quote:
