Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiSevere deflation: CPI falls by more than 10%/year 23.5%7 seçenek arasında lider
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2
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multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis27 Haz 26 02:51 UTC27 Haz 31 02:46 UTC
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Kurallar
Assume that by Dec. 31, 2035, an AI system exists that is generally considered superintelligent relative to humans across economically relevant cognitive tasks, and assume human civilization and US government statistics still exist.
- This market resolves based on the annualized change in US CPI-U All Items over the five calendar years after the first year in which ASI exists.
- For example, if ASI first exists in 2031, resolve using CPI from Jan. 2032 to Jan. 2037.
- Use BLS CPI-U All Items, or the closest successor series if CPI-U is discontinued.
