Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
JeopolitikOne-OffSağlık ve TıpUzayHava Durumu
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHuman misuse of AI 32.3%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Ağu 26 20:36 UTC31 Ara 50 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least one AI system causing more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, what's the type of attack?
Manifold MarketsWhen (if ever) will AI cause human extinction?
Manifold MarketsWill the human civilization collapse before we become multi planetary species?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.
