Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2050-12-31 71.9%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Ağu 26 02:59 UTC31 Ara 50 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Manifold MarketsWill a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketKurallar
Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.
- Anything that gets at least 1/3 of its delta-V from something not a rocket counts.
- From the surface of the Earth, Moon, Mars, or anything else with at least the Moon's escape velocity, to orbit or escape.
- Payload must survive enough to transmit from orbit or do something useful.
Açık piyasalar
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88.1%
- OpenAI-0.9pt9.9%
- Google+0.1pt2%
+18 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺126,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺4,1 Mn
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- September 30-3.5pt85%
- Successful splash down?+1.0pt84%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes97%
- No3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺8,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,1 Mn
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-4.0pt86%
- Above 9-23.0pt48%
- Above 10-13.0pt18%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Sık sorulan sorular
- By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2050-12-31 için 72% fiyatlıyor.
- By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2050.
- By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.